Up 1.51% MoM! Bao Gang United Steel and China Northern Rare Earth See Further Rise in Rare Earth Concentrate Prices in Q3! [SMM Commentary]

SMM reported on July 10:

China Northern Rare Earth announced in the evening of July 10 that, based on the pricing method for rare earth concentrate and the prices of rare earth oxides in Q2 2025, after calculations and approval by the company's 11th general manager's office meeting in 2025,the transaction price for rare earth concentrate in Q3 2025 was adjusted to 19,109 yuan/mt (dry basis, REO=50%), with an increase or decrease of 382.18 yuan/mt for every 1% increase or decrease in REO, excluding tax. Compared with the transaction price of 18,825 yuan/mt in Q2 2025, the price of 19,109 yuan/mt represents an increase of 284 yuan/mt, up 1.51% QoQ.

The transaction price for rare earth concentrate between China Northern Rare Earth and Bao Gang United Steel in Q3 increased by 1.51% QoQ.

China Northern Rare Earth's announcement in the evening of July 9 showed that the company held the 25th meeting of the 8th Board of Directors and the first extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2023 on March 14 and March 30, respectively, and approved the "Proposal on the Pricing Mechanism for Daily Related Transactions of Rare Earth Concentrates and the Implementation in 2022 and Estimation in 2023". The company and its related party, Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co., Ltd., agreed that starting from April 1, 2023, under the condition that the pricing formula for rare earth concentrates remains unchanged, the company's management will calculate and adjust the price of rare earth concentrates based on the pricing formula in the first ten days of each quarter, and re-sign the supply contract or supplementary agreement for rare earth concentrates and make an announcement.Based on the pricing method for rare earth concentrate and the prices of rare earth oxides in Q2 2025, after calculations and approval by the company's 11th general manager's office meeting in 2025, the transaction price for rare earth concentrate in Q3 2025 was adjusted to 19,109 yuan/mt (dry basis, REO=50%), with an increase or decrease of 382.18 yuan/mt for every 1% increase or decrease in REO, excluding tax. Compared with the transaction price of 18,825 yuan/mt in Q2 2025, the price of 19,109 yuan/mt represents an increase of 284 yuan/mt, up 1.51% QoQ.

China Northern Rare Earth's announcement in the evening of April 9 showed that:Based on the pricing method for rare earth concentrate and the prices of rare earth oxides in Q1 2025, after calculations and approval by the company's 6th general manager's office meeting in 2025, the transaction price for rare earth concentrate in Q2 2025 was adjusted to 18,825 yuan/mt (dry basis, REO=50%), with an increase or decrease of 376.50 yuan/mt for every 1% increase or decrease in REO, excluding tax.The transaction price for rare earth concentrate in Q2 increased by 207 yuan/mt compared with the transaction price of18,618 yuan/mt in Q1, up 1.11% QoQ.

China Northern Rare Earth announced on January 9 that, based on the pricing method for rare earth concentrate and the prices of rare earth oxides in Q4 2024, after calculations and approval by the company's first general manager's office meeting in 2025, the transaction price for rare earth concentrate in Q1 2025 was adjusted to 18,618 yuan/mt (dry basis, REO=50%), with an increase or decrease of 372.36 yuan/mt for every 1% increase or decrease in REO, excluding tax. Compared with the transaction price of rare earth concentrate in Q4 2024, which was 17,782 yuan/mt, the price increased by 836 yuan/mt, up 4.7% QoQ.

China Northern Rare Earth announced on the evening of October 9, 2024 that, based on the pricing method for rare earth concentrate and the prices of rare earth oxides in Q3 2024, after calculation and approval by the company's 19th General Manager's Office Meeting in 2024,the transaction price of rare earth concentrate for Q4 2024 was adjusted to 17,782 yuan/mt (dry basis, REO=50%) excluding tax, with an increase or decrease of 355.64 yuan/mt for every 1% increase or decrease in REO, excluding tax. Compared with the price of 16,741 yuan/mt in Q3 2024,the price increased by 1,041 yuan/mt, up 6.22% QoQ.

China Northern Rare Earth announced on the evening of July 9, 2024 that, based on the pricing method for rare earth concentrate and the prices of rare earth oxides in Q2 2024, after calculation and approval by the company's 13th General Manager's Office Meeting in 2024, the transaction price of rare earth concentrate for Q3 2024 was adjusted to 16,741 yuan/mt (dry basis, REO=50%) excluding tax, with an increase or decrease of 334.82 yuan/mt for every 1% increase or decrease in REO, excluding tax. Compared with the price of 16,792 yuan/mt in Q2 2024, the price decreased by 51 yuan/mt, down 0.3% QoQ.

China Northern Rare Earth announced on the evening of April 9, 2024 that, based on the pricing method for rare earth concentrate and the prices of rare earth oxides in Q1 2024, after calculation and approval by the company's 6th General Manager's Office Meeting in 2024, the transaction price of rare earth concentrate for Q2 2024 was adjusted to 16,792 yuan/mt (dry basis, REO=50%) excluding tax, with an increase or decrease of 335.84 yuan/mt for every 1% increase or decrease in REO, excluding tax. This represented a decrease of 3,945 yuan/mt compared with Q1 2024, down 19.02% QoQ.

China Northern Rare Earth announced on the evening of January 9, 2024 that, based on the pricing method for rare earth concentrate and the prices of rare earth oxides in Q4 2023, after calculation and approval by the company's 1st General Manager's Office Meeting in 2024, the transaction price of rare earth concentrate for Q1 2024 was adjusted to 20,737 yuan/mt (dry basis, REO=50%) excluding tax, representing an increase of 201 yuan/mt compared with Q4 2023, up 0.98% QoQ.

The transaction price of rare earth concentrate between Bao Gang United Steel and China Northern Rare Earth in Q3 continued the upward trend seen in Q1 and Q2 this year. In Q1 this year, the transaction price of rare earth concentrate between Bao Gang United Steel and China Northern Rare Earth increased by 4.7% QoQ, in Q2 it increased by 1.11% QoQ, and in Q3 it increased by 1.5% QoQ. Reviewing the changes in the transaction prices of rare earth concentrates between Bao Gang United Steel and China Northern Rare Earth in 2024, it can be seen that the transaction price of rare earth concentrates from China Northern Rare Earth increased slightly on a MoM basis in Q1 2024, decreased significantly on a MoM basis in Q2 2024, decreased slightly on a MoM basis in Q3 2024, approaching a flat level, and increased on a MoM basis in Q4 2024.

The rising price center of rare earths has driven the transaction prices of rare earth concentrates to increase quarter by quarter this year.

》Click to view SMM rare earth spot prices

》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot prices

Since the beginning of 2025, compared with the end of 2024, the overall price center of Pr-Nd oxide has shifted upwards. Reviewing the price trend of SMM Pr-Nd oxide in the first half of this year, it can be seen that the average price of Pr-Nd oxide on June 30 was 444,500 yuan/mt, representing an increase of 11.68% compared with the average price of 398,000 yuan/mt on December 31, 2024. Comparing the daily average price of Pr-Nd oxide in the first half of 2025 (429,605.26 yuan/mt) with that in the first half of 2024 (381,646.55 yuan/mt), it can be seen that the daily average price increased by 12.57% YoY in the first half of this year. The continuous upward shift in the price center of Pr-Nd oxide this year has driven the transaction prices of rare earth concentrates to increase quarter by quarter.

According to SMM quotes, the price of Pr-Nd oxide on July 10 was 453,000-454,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 453,500 yuan/mt, representing a decrease of 500 yuan/mt or 0.11% compared with the previous trading day. Since entering July, Pr-Nd oxide has experienced a continuous increase from July 3 to July 8. This was mainly influenced by the following factors: In terms of supply, affected by news, some rare earth enterprises were expected to temporarily suspend production, increasing market concerns about production cuts in oxides; the rainy season in Southeast Asia would lead to a decrease in ion-adsorption ore imports. In terms of demand, frequent tenders by major magnetic material factories have significantly boosted market confidence and led most industry insiders to hold optimistic expectations for the downstream demand of rare earths in the future.

Regarding the future market of rare earths, based on comprehensive analysis of information from the supply and demand perspectives, a clear consensus has been formed in the current market: the expectation of a tightening supply and demand fundamental for Pr-Nd oxide in the short term has already been established. This change in fundamentals provides solid support for the price of Pr-Nd oxide. Meanwhile, as the traditional off-season for NdFeB approaches its end, the proximity of the traditional peak season for the industry, "September-October peak season", will further strengthen market expectations. It is generally believed within the industry that the price of Pr-Nd will continue to rise in the coming period.